Wednesday, December 06, 2006

The Absurdity of Winning

* Alert - This post does not relate to Texas

Over the last 24 hours, the Boston Red Sox have signed JD Drew for 5 years at 14 million per; and Julio Lugo for 4 years at 9 million per.

JD Drew replaces, in effect, Wily Mo Pena in the lineup; while Julio Lugo replaces Alex Gonzalez.

During the 2006 season, JD Drew recorded a WRAP (Wins Above Replacement Player) of 7.3; Wilo Mo Pena, in roughly 3/5 of the ABs, recorded a WRAR of 2.3, which extrapolates (roughly) to a WRAR of 3.8 for the same number of ABs as Drew. Julio Lugo recorded a WRAP of 3.4; Alex Gonzalez had a WRAP of 1.5 in slightly fewer ABs, or roughly a 1.6 equalized to Lugo's ABs.

In summation, the Red Sox gain roughly 5 wins in those two transactions, translating to a whopping $5 million per win. Add those 5 wins to the Red Sox ledger last year, they finish 6 back of the Yankees and and 4 back of the wild card.

For some additional perspective, the notorious free-spending Yankees had a baseball-leading payroll of $198 million last year, and recorded 97 wins - translating to roughly $2 million per win. The Minnesota Twins, the team with the widely-recognized best GM in baseball, had a payroll of $64 million last year, and recorded 96 wins - translating to roughly $ 2/3 million per win.


vwz said...

I just realized that the main post did not even touch on JD Drew's well-known reputation for durability

Head Dude said...

I think what irritates me most is the hypocrisy -- three years ago when the Yankees went on a signing spree, Larry Luchino whined that it was unfair. And now, not only are they going on an unprecedented spree (if you add in Matsuzaki), they're going on an unprecedented foolish one.
Not that Adam Eaton for $8 mil/year of Matthews Jr. for $10 mil/year is exactly wise either, but Julio Lugo???? At least the Yankees sign dudes that put up good stats, even if they're old and on the verge of breaking down. Drew's had one great year, and Lugo has had zero good years.

ThadisRad said...

Okay dudes, we get the point...

Joel, when was the last time you heard a Red Sox fan complain about spending? I seriously doubt you'ce heard anyone say anything about it since 2003/4. So don't give me this hypocrisy BS, especially given the Rangers questionable history in signing certain shortstops to record-smashing contracts.

As for the rest, there is absolutely no way I can defend any of the signings this week. They have lost their minds.

But just a friendly reminder...
Major Championships in the last five years...
Boston: 4
Dallas: 0
Houston: 0 (unless we count the MLS. which we do not)

Head Dude said...

I didn't say Red Sox fan, I said Red Sox management. And I didn't say anything about the Rangers; they've made their mistakes, learned from them, and are ready to make the same mistakes all over again. It's called being owned by one of Bush's biggest donors.
And Dude, if you'd like to point to the scoreboard, this one has a long way left to go, but in the '90s it was:
Dallas: 4
Houston: 2
Boston: 0

ThadisRad said...

Well dude, for your sake I hope you get a DeLorean for Hanukah.