Wednesday, April 25, 2007

John Hollinger - Backpedalling Faster Than Don Imus

Just a week after giving Golden State less than a 4% chance of beating Dallas, Hollinger has revised his odds. Drawing data just from the last 17 games for the Warriors (starting with the return of a healthy Baron Davis to a lineup that already included a healthy Jason Richardson), but the full season for the Mavericks, Hollinger's recrunched numbers indicate that GS now has a 59.6% chance to beat the Mavericks. Is it accurate? I'll say it's much more accurate than the 4%. But then again, Hollinger's numbers don't reflect my scouting of both teams' tendencies. Nevertheless, it is interesting fodder for discussion.

Hollinger did the same thing for the Denver series, using the 19 games where Camby, Iverson and Anthony all played, and again, the full season for the Spurs. His revised numbers indicate Denver's odds have increased to 42.2%. Is it accurate? I think so.

Both numbers reflect for the most part what I've said: the Mavericks are in trouble, the Spurs will be fine.


The Franchise said...

I don't pretend to be a master of statistics or how they do or do not relate to sports. However...

Don't the chances of the Warriors and Nuggets pulling off upsets have to increase simply because they've won the first game? From a purely mathematical standpoint they've already eliminated one negative outcome - being swept.

On a more practical level, they've taken home court advantage away from the higher seeds. That may or may not mean anything, and we won't know until after each series has gone four games.

I'll simplify it like this: if either Dallas or S.A. lose Game 2, they're in big trouble. If they win handily then they're probably in good shape. If they eke out wins, who the hell knows>

Head Dude said...

And I'll add to Franchise's remarks that if I hear the dude mention his "scouting" one more time, I'm going to march down to Houston in the few minutes between tonight's tasty doubleheader and tear the silky hairs off his silky-smooth arms.