Just a week after giving Golden State less than a 4% chance of beating Dallas, Hollinger has revised his odds. Drawing data just from the last 17 games for the Warriors (starting with the return of a healthy Baron Davis to a lineup that already included a healthy Jason Richardson), but the full season for the Mavericks, Hollinger's recrunched numbers indicate that GS now has a 59.6% chance to beat the Mavericks. Is it accurate? I'll say it's much more accurate than the 4%. But then again, Hollinger's numbers don't reflect my scouting of both teams' tendencies. Nevertheless, it is interesting fodder for discussion.
Hollinger did the same thing for the Denver series, using the 19 games where Camby, Iverson and Anthony all played, and again, the full season for the Spurs. His revised numbers indicate Denver's odds have increased to 42.2%. Is it accurate? I think so.
Both numbers reflect for the most part what I've said: the Mavericks are in trouble, the Spurs will be fine.