Sunday, December 02, 2007

Obamentum!!

The Des Moines Register's latest poll confirms what ABC News polls showed last week: Barack Obama has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton among likely caucus voters. The shift repeats what has been a familiar trend in Obama elections since his loss to Bobby Rush in 2000 - as the calendar flips forward toward election day, Obamentum picks up!! Significantly, in the latest DMR poll, Obama has surged ahead of Clinton among female voters.

1 comment:

Head Dude said...

The problem with Iowa is when the polls are this tight, as I'd imagine they will be up through election day, it makes the caucus entirely unpredictable. For instance, at this point in 2000, Bradley was comfortably leading Gore, and in 2004, of course, Dean and Gephardt were locked in a two-man struggle. So a three point lead for Obama, or a three point lead for Hillary, is relatively meaningless right now, so long as Edwards stays in third! The only reason it's significant is because the media will play it up.

That said, I'm pleased Hillary's in a fight. I think it would be better for the party if Obama wins Iowa, because then the true strengths and weaknesses of both would be tested and there wouldn't be a coronation. I'm fine with either as the nominee - neither is perfect, but both have unique strengths - and just don't want Edwards slipping into the top two. It'll be an interesting sociological test for Obama in Iowa -- unfortunately, it's a proven fact that black candidates often poll better than they get on election day, so in a white state like Iowa, hopefully that won't be the case here.

My only quibble with your post Dude is the assertion that Obama is a known closer. He has been in like, what, two elections? So not exactly a discernible trend in late-race comebacks, especially since he cruised in 2004. The same used to be said of Kerry, that he took over close elections at the end, a trend which served up until the biggest race of his life, when he couldn't close the deal.

But I'm happy it's a race. Still a race that I think will be resolved one way or the other quicker than the Republicans, but chances are February 5 will decisive for all involved with so many states front loaded.