Thursday, January 24, 2008

How a 15-point lead may be better than 18

Today's Zogby tracking poll has Obama's lead down to 15 in South Carolina, but that may be better news than yesterday's 18 point lead. How? Because in the polling taken since the debate, Edwards has started catching up to Hillary, going from 10 back now down to just 5. Zogby says the trend appears to be slight slippage for Obama, a little more for Clinton, and traction for Edwards. Given the population makeup in South Carolina, it's highly unlikely that Obama will lose, but as we've discussed, a win might not be enough to change the momentum much.

But ... if Edwards was able to slip into second place and push Hillary down to third, in the three days before Florida, suddenly the media might be talking about how all of the Clintons' Lee-Atwater-style campaigning is turning off voters, and then there's a chance for a changed dynamic.

Not saying this will happen, but somehow in the next few days, Edwards could turn into Obama's ally if he can keep making up ground ... while Bill keeps running his mouth.

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