Thursday, January 03, 2008

Obama Wins! Obama Wins!

It's looking like a potentially-disastrous third-place finish for Hillary, and a terrible night for Romney on the other side.
Was this our first step to an Obama/McCain showdown?
One nice conclusion we can make? Goodnight Edwards!


Anonymous said...

I have to say this was really refreshing for me. I have to admit I was really worried if "white" America could really pull the trigger and vote Obama, especially as it appears to be a good 3-4 points higher than what was projected and what was the margin of error.

This does at least give me hope for the rest of the race. I agree a 3rd could be disastrous for Hilary but I still think the Clinton might still be a little too powerful (provided her advisers and her husband can agree on strategy and his potential role in the race)

Whatever the case what a great win for Obama. Congrats and keep going.

Head Dude said...

It's interesting that Obama was the rare candidate who actually appeared to bring new voters to the caucus -- incredible turnout of over 200,000, more than twice as many as the Republicans. Every candidate talks about how they're going to bring new voters to the process, and perhaps Obama is delivering. The caution sign? Obama got over 60% of the votes among young people, but under 20% among people over 65%. You can't count on young voters in every state, whereas senior citizens always turn out, so New Hampshire could be a different story.
New Hampshire will be a fight -- the Clintons are going to battle back hard, and if she wins there, she's still probably the favorite. But if Obama wins again...

Anonymous said...

Sorry I forgot to sign my name of the first post (Big Daddy)

But I completely agree with Head Dude. The somewhat "comforting" thought though is that Obama beat Clinton on virtually all the "big issues" including Clinton's supposed specialty of health care. Perhaps that was due to the youth movement but nevertheless encouraging just the same.

The question is as Clinton fights back hard does she take the risk and go "negative" or does she try to hammer home her "experience" , which though not highly ranked among Iowans as high on their list of importance might be elsewhere?

Big Daddy

The Dude said...

If Barack wins in New Hampshire - that will be all she wrote for Hillary. What is far more interesting is to see how the McCain and Romney will fare in the much less religious New Hampshire. If Huckabee gets an Iowa bump into the 20s in New Hampshire, he could be in the race to stay - other wise, it might just be a blip on the radar screen. Nevertheless, Barack's win in lily white Iowa, the certainty of the Iowa bump in New Hampshire and the likely landslide in South Carolina has certainly put Clinton in the fight for her life. Those who have doubted Barack's political viability have been proven wrong, time and again, and Head Dude stands right there with the proven-wrong doubters.

The Franchise said...

I remain highly skeptical of younger voters until proven otherwise... and the Iowa victory is not enough to make me think otherwise.

My challenge to young Americans is this: if you want to see change, back it up with action. Come out and vote! And, oh yeah, preferably vote Obama...

Head Dude said...

Uh Dude, you seem to forget the fact that I support Obama. Usually in politics, when someone's on your side, you don't try to inaccurately bash them.

But I do disagree that if Hillary loses New Hampshire, it's automatically over. She's up big in Nevada, South Carolina is tied, and she's up big in Florida, which means she could right the ship before Super Tuesday. I don't want that to happen, and I think Obama's momentum could sweep him into contention in Nevada and Florida, but remember what Bill did in '92 -- he lost Iowa badly, finished second in New Hampshire, declared himself the comeback kid, and then surged forward.

Hillary obviously isn't as skilled of a politician, but she has the same people pulling the strings, a lot of money, and a lot of campaign experience. Save the champagne until Super Tuesday -- clinton's up by about 20 nationally right now, and Super tuesday will be a national referendum, including in two mega states (NY and Calif) where she's very popular, so Obama still has plenty of work to do.

The Dude said...

SAT question for the enlightened DudeSpin readers:

1. Obama is to Clinton as the Golden State Warriors are to:

A. Dallas Mavericks
B. Houston Dynamo
C. Buffalo Sabres
D. Minnesota Lynx
E. Durham Bulls

Anonymous said...

Sadly Dude, the SAT no longer has analogy questions.

But again I have to agree with Head Dude and his analysis. This is a great start which will hopefully carry Obama to the nomination but there is still much work to be done.

No one wants Obama to pull this out more than me but I still "fear" the Clinton machine.

Big Daddy

Head Dude said...

Here's another non-SAT analogy:

Obama is to Clinton as a 2007 winning record is to:

a) The Houston Rockets
b) The Houston Texans
c) The Houston Astros
d) All of the Above