Tuesday, February 05, 2008

The Next Phase...

It was a good news, bad news night, and perhaps the best news is this: Obama didn't lose any ground, and the schedule looks very favorable for him the next few weeks leading up to Ohio and Texas, so he has time to catch up in the delegate camp and grab clear momentum before March. A few weeks ago, Super Tuesday looked like it could be decisive for Hillary, and it certainly was not.

On the one hand, Obama appears to have won 13 states, assuming he holds onto a narrow lead in Missouri and takes Alaska. So from that perspective, it was a good night. And the energy towards him remains in motion, as does the money flow, so there's still plenty of time.

On the other hand, the momentum Obama seized the last week got him close to the mountaintop, but he wasn't able to reach the peak as was hoped the last few days. The win in Connecticut and comeback in Missouri were significant, but otherwise Hillary held her ground. If Obama had made more inroads in New Jersey, Massachusetts, or California, he would have grabbed headlines for winning on Hillary's turf. But particularly in California (based on early returns and NBC/CNN projections), the polls were wrong and Obama never really came close.

The biggest concern at this point is not letting the delegate deficit get too far away. Depending on how California breaks down, Hillary will lead by anywhere between about 50-100 delegates, and the closer she gets to 100, the harder that gets to overcome. The small-state wins were nice, but didn't make a big difference in totals, and superdelegates continue to favor Hillary.

But Dude states loom large now -- Texas, then Pennsylvania, and maybe even North Carolina. Get ready ... after taking a break for tomorrow night's showdown in Chapel Hill!

3 comments:

The Dude said...

Yes We Can!

The Dude said...

This article shows that Clinton is favored to win Pennsylvania. Franchise, are you going to let that happen?

Anonymous said...

I'm curious as to how Romney's decision to drop out will affect things on the Dem's side.

A long and protracted battle between Hil&Obama doesn't bode well for the Dems in Nov against the seemingly already designated McCain.

Big Daddy