Tuesday, September 09, 2008

The Campaign Needs You, Now, More Than Ever

Today comes word that after months of record-breaking fundraising, the Obama fundraising machine has finally slowed, at a most inopportune time. Dudes, this is our moment; this is our time. Will you step up to the Airborne / Obama challenge?


ThadisRad said...

I'm starting to lose Hope for Team Obama. I now believe that somehow the nation will again vote Republican.

Dude, I need to hear you. Back in Notre Dame last year, when Head Dude and I had given up and resigned ourselves to Hillary, you still had the audacity of hope.

I need that hope now. Convince me he will win.

The Dude said...

We need to take a step back and stop paying attention to the polls. And think for a moment about the impact of voter registration on this election cycle. The Republicans wore out their GOTV machines in 2000 and 2004 with their grassroots efforts through the churches. Everyone who the Republicans want to register to vote has already registered. Whereas, this cycle saw an unprecedented number of new voter registrations on the democratic side. I have no empirical evidence to prove it, but I imagine that the tracking polls today underestimate by, a not insignificant portion, the impact of new voters. Think about several questions that I do not know the answers to:
(1) are these tracking pollsters calling only LAN lines or are they calling cell phones?
(2) would young voters pick up unidentified callers on their LAN line? on their cell-phone?
(3) have you ever talked to a pollster and been polled?

The young/new voters will decide this election. I have the hope that their traditional lethargy will disappear given the energy in this campaign.

Head Dude said...

I agree with the Dude's analysis, though the problem with it is you never want to have to hope for young voters to turnout in order to win.
I do think the electoral math actually is in our favor, so long as Obama can hold onto Michigan and PA. If we can't, all bets are off.

The Franchise said...

Speaking from PA, I think Obama will win here - well, not here in Central PA, where the politics of fear play especially well - but it will be scary close.

I can't speak for Michigan. I still have family in the Detroit area, but I fear they may be voting McCain, and thus I don't really want to discuss the election with them.

And I don't want to be the voice of pessimism, but like The Dude said, hoping for young voters to be the difference is jut that: hope. The next time they prove to be the decisive force in a close presidential election will be the first.

One last rant: if Joe and Jill Average out there actually buy the Republicans' efforts to brand McCain as some sort of agent for change, then the slop that currently passes for prime time television programming is rotting their brains even faster than I thought.

End of rant...

Head Dude said...

To Obama's credit, he's come out swinging the last few days, which immediately makes him a different candidate than Kerry.
The lipstick on a pig remark yesterday tactically is a good one, albeit not without risks. The media immediately pointed out that McCain said the same thing about Hillary, so it: (a) reminds voters that McCain isn't about change; and (b) shows McCain's hypocrisy when it comes to defending women.
Now will both of those points actually sink in? Maybe not, but at least Obama is trying to shift the debate.

Big Daddy said...

If we're talking about polls then Undude take a look at the following


One reason why I've never quite trust the polls (even when "we" are up) I have to agree with Head Dude and the Franchise. Depending on the youth vote is a recipe for disaster. It should be the icing on the cake not the cake itself (to continue the food/cooking metaphor)

He simply has to make inroads in the white working/middle class demographic.

While I too am getting worried (though I'm a pessimist by nature)...
Yes We Can!

The Dude said...

Do we not learn anything from the GOP, who steal one election after another? The key isn't to chip away at the swing voters in the middle; the key is to get your base to the polls. This year, in addition to the traditional democratic base, we have a new, younger base of voters who are anxious for change. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Barack wins if the newly registered come out to vote, and he will lose if they don't. I think in 08, they will come out in unprecedented numbers.

ThadisRad said...

Dude, you talk a big game about new voters and young folk, but I just think so much of the excitement is gone. Now maybe it's because I live in NC, but Barack's not new and exciting anymore. He's been campaigning for so long, I feel like there is nothing fresh about him to reinspire the masses.

Plus, when I ask young 18 year olds why they are wearing Barack T-Shirts, they can't even tell me why, other than he's cool. I'm worried voting Barack is a fad that is dying. This generation had Furbys, Tamagotchis, and now Barack. And where are Furbys now? Not the White House, that's for sure!

I don't know, I've just lost the audacity. And I'm pissed that McCain's Palin move has created so much excitement and buzz eventhough she supports creationism in schools! Really?!

Big Daddy said...

Don't forget teletubbies either Undude. And yes we did learn from the GOP Dude, but I like to go back a little further to evil architect of the "modern" Republican Party, RR himself. You grow your base by siphoning off from the other party.

I'm not saying we need to go so far as having Obama Republicans like the Reagan Democrats of the 80s, but it'd be nice to at the very least mitigate the damage in key demographics...demographics who actually vote, while also rallying the base as you so rightly say, and growing the party as he did in the primaries.

I hope the newly registered do come out, but I wonder if Undude isn't on to something about Obama as a fad. It's cool to sport the wear, and say you support Obama, but will they go to the booth and when there will they pull the lever with his name filled in?